000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 06N77W TO 01N96W TO 
04N116W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N85W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 05N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW 
PORTION WITH AXIS ALONG 32N136W TO 29N140W. DRY UPPER AIR IS 
NOTED NW OF THE TROUGH. E OF THE TROUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ENHANCED AND DEBRIS MOISTURE IS INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM SE OF 
THE TROUGH AT THE MOMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH HAS NEARLY MOVED NE OF 
THE AREA BUT TRAILS A NARROW BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N129W TO 27N140W.     

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE NOTED NEAR 11N98W AND 14N117W 
WITH A RIDGE NW TO CRESTING ALONG POINTS 22N140W 29N128W 
28N122W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 132W AND 156W...IS STREAMING NE WITHIN THE 
RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 480 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N140W TO 
24N118W WHERE THE MOISTURE ALMOST COMPLETELY EVAPORATES. ITCZ 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA S OF 07N E 
OF 89W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE SAME 
AREA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SE OF A LINE 
FROM 26N105W TO 10N130W.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY SHIFTING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. A NEW 
GENERATION OF LARGE NW SWELLS FOLLOW THE FRONT REINFORCING THE 
NW SWELLS THAT HAVE ALMOST REACHED THE EQUATOR OVER THE WATERS W 
OF 110W. S OF THE FRONT...THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED S AND 
LIES ALONG 27N140W TO 12N107W. THE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A SWATH 
NE 20 TO 25 KT TRADES FROM 05N TO 22N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N TO 
20N BETWEEN 130W AND 115W. SEAS RANGE 9 TO 13 FT IN MIXED NE AND 
NW SWELL. NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOTED NE OF THE RIDGE AND E 
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND EXTEND E TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
SSMI DATA INDICATES THAT THERE ARE NW WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT 
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT MON 
NIGHT AND TUE.

$$
NELSON