000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... AXIS 06N77W TO 02N100W TO 
04N120W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS AND EAST OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS NEAR 3N78W...AND NEAR 4N131.5W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WITH CORE WINDS 
OF 110-130 KT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
24N140W TO 29N120W THEN CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAJA 
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS S OF THE TROUGH GENERALLY S OF 25N W OF 120W. SWLY 
WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE TRANSPORTING 
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY N OF 20N. A 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST N OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS AND WEST OF 135W.

AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 118W SOUTH OF 10N TO 
THE EQUATOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EPAC E OF 110W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
THEN N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE 
AXIS. THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 12N100W 
GENERATING A LARGE SWATH NE 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 
120W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED NE OF THE RIDGE TO THE 
BAJA PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET 
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO SUN PRODUCING AN 
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SUN 
AFTERNOON INTO MON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO HAVE BEEN SURGING AT 20 KT. A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 
1200 UTC CONFIRMED THESE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN 
ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

$$
GR