000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140345
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 07N77W TO 02N100W TO 
01.5N110W TO 01.5N122W TO 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG 
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 03N77W TO 04N90W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N112W TO 
27N129W TO 27N140W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N146W AND IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N122W WITH A RIDGE NW 
TO BEYOND 25N140W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 141W AND 154W...IS 
STREAMING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS W OF 125W...WITH 
A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE CONTINUING ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA PENINSULA AND OLD MEXICO ALONG 26N. 

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED ALONG 23N105W TO 05N121W. 
E OF THIS TROUGH IS A BROAD RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE AT 08N87W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THE 
RIDGE OVER THE AREA S OF 06N E OF 90W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SE OF A LINE FROM 28N95 TO 08N123W.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N140W TO 12N105W. A 
LARGE SWATH NE 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 08N TO THE RIDGE W OF 120W. 
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOTED NE OF THE RIDGE TO THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. SSMI DATA INDICATES THAT THERE ARE NW WINDS AT 15 TO 
20 KT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO ENTER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SAT PRODUCING 
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND N SWELL.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING IN 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON.

$$
NELSON