000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 07N77W TO 01N100W TO 
03N116W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 03N79W TO 05N86W AND 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 03N127W.  

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N116W TO 
28N140W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N146W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY 
DRY UPPER AIR FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 100W AND 140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N125W WITH A RIDGE NW TO BEYOND 
22N140W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 142W AND 155W...IS 
STREAMING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS W OF 125W...WITH 
A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA. 

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED ALONG 23N105W TO 07N123W. 
E OF THIS TROUGH IS A BROAD RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE AT 07N83W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THE 
RIDGE OVER THE AREA S OF 07N E OF 88W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SE OF A LINE FROM 28N100W TO 10N120W.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 12N110W. A 
LARGE SWATH NE 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 08N TO THE RIDGE W OF 120W. 
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOTED NE OF THE RIDGE TO THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE N PORTION OF 
THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND N 
SWELL.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING IN 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON.

$$
NELSON