000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...06N77W TO 01N100W TO 02N121W TO 
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS AND EAST 
OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 
NM OF 04N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS MAINLY E TO W ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27W. A 110 TO 
130 KT JET LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS ENTERING THE NW 
PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS 
DECREASE TO 100 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ANCHORED ON AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH NEAR 10N124W...COVERS GENERALLY THE AREA S OF 20N W 
OF 115W. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH 
THE RIDGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EPAC E OF 105W TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA THEN N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 22N105W TO 10N114W. 

AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB SFC 
HIGH NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N146W AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ 
IS PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 08N-27N W OF 
120W. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS IN NLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED OFF THE N 
AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT 
IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE N PORTION OF THE 
AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF UP 
TO 14-15 FT IN NW SWELL. IN THE MEANTIME...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
COMBINED WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED 
OVER 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 100W-110W. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING IN 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AT 1200 UTC...SHIP 
REPORTS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ABATE OVER 
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
GR