000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N77W TO 
01N105W TO 03N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE TO E TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
EARLIER QSCAT DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBS REVEAL 20-25 KT FLOW 
OVER THE GAP. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND SURGING S OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. N WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT BRIEFLY TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. 

BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N AND WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE 
WEEKEND. MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO 
WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  EXCEPT FOR MOIST CONDITIONS SOUTH OF PANAMA 
THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM 23N97W TO 15N110W TO 00N115W IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS INDICATING 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF 
SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 13N TO 25N W OF 125W. THE AREA NORTH OF 15N 
WEST OF 115W IS COVERED WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN 
THE LOWER LEVELS.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 110W. MODERATE 
NORTHEAST TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS COVER THE ARE FROM ABOUT 05N 
TO 25N WEST OF 115W. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL COVERS MOST OF THE 
AREA WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS BROAD 
TROUGH.

$$
LL