000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 04N89W TO 02N100W TO 
02N111W TO 01N125W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE TO E TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
EARLIER QSCAT DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBS REVEAL 20-25 KT FLOW 
OVER THE GAP. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND SURGING S OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. N WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT WITHIN NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FRONT 
NEARS. HOWEVER...THE FRONT SHOULD START TO LIFT BACK N THU 
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BY THU NIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EARLIER QSCAT DATA REVEALED 20 KT NLY WINDS 
OVER THE S AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ENHANCED BY HIGH 
PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE LIKELY 
DIMINISHED AS LOW PRES SYSTEMS HAS TRACKED INTO THE WRN CONUS.

THE MID AND UPPER PATTERN IS FAIRLY FLAT WITH MAINLY W TO SW 
FLOW...EXCEPT FOR A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE FAR TROPICAL E 
PORTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR 28N123W IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT 
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE N OF 
26N E OF 123W. A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS ENHANCING AN AREA 
OF ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 120W-125W. OTHERWISE... 
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIMITED TO TYPICAL QUICK MOVING TRADE WIND 
DRIVEN SHOWERS. A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS 
PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE  
ALONG 30N E OF 136W. THIS BOUNDARY AND LIKELY ONE TO FOLLOW WILL 
MOVE THROUGH THE NE WATERS AND NW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO. BEYOND THAT...A MORE AMPLIFIED  LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SE 
OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT 
A LARGER AREA OF THE SUBTROPICS THIS WEEKEND.

TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN BETWEEN STRONG 1036 MB NEAR 38N143W AND 
LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF 20-25 KT NE/E 
TRADES FROM 06N-27N W OF 124W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE 
PRES/WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WIND GENERATED 
WAVES COMBINED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED 
OVER 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI