000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 02N79W TO 01N87W TO 01N98W TO 
01N111W TO 03N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE TO E TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
QSCAT DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBS REVEAL 20-25 KT FLOW OVER 
THE GAP. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND SURGING S OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. N WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS THE FRONT 
NEARS. HOWEVER...THE FRONT SHOULD START TO LIFT BACK N THU 
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BY THU NIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EARLIER QSCAT DATA REVEALED 20 KT NLY WINDS 
OVER THE S AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ENHANCED BY HIGH 
PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS A 
PAIR OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS TRACK INTO THE WRN CONUS.

THE MID AND UPPER PATTERN IS FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH MAINLY W TO 
SW FLOW...EXCEPT FOR A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE FAR 
TROPICAL E PORTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR 27N124W IS PRODUCING 
ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER 
MOISTURE N OF 24N E OF 127W. A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS 
ENHANCING A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 
121W-123W. OTHERWISE...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIMITED TO TYPICAL 
QUICK MOVING TRADE WIND DRIVEN SHOWERS. A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES 
OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT ALONG 
30N/31N E OF 135W. THIS BOUNDARY AND LIKELY ONE TO FOLLOW WILL 
MOVE THROUGH THE NE WATERS AND NW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO. BEYOND THAT...A MORE AMPLIFIED  LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG 
SE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL 
AFFECT A LARGER AREA OF THE SUBTROPICS THIS WEEKEND.

TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN BETWEEN STRONG 1036 MB NEAR 28N145W AND 
LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF 20-25 KT NE/E 
TRADES FROM 7N-26N W OF 116W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE 
PRES/WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WIND GENERATED 
WAVES COMBINED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED 
OVER 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI