000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTER TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...02N79W 
TO 01N87W TO 03N95W TO 01N110W TO 03N125W TO 04N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN A 1028 MB HIGH PRES AREA 
OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO...AND WEAK TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
QUIKSCAT IS SHOWING WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF 
WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 
LATE TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E FLOW THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT 
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING GAP WINDS TO INCREASE BRIEFLY THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THU. THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AS THE 
FRONT STALLS AND LIFTS NORTH LATER ON THU...SHUTTING OFF THE 
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC.

ELSEWHERE...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE 
GULF OF ALASKA TO THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. 
WEST COAST...TO THE EAST OF A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE N OF 
HAWAII. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA 
CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 39N146W. QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES A BROAD 
SWATH OF 20 KT TRADES FROM GENERALLY 10N TO 20N W OF 115W...S OF 
THE HIGH PRES. NW TO N SWELL OF UP TO 10 FT IS PUSHING S OF 32N 
OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. NE SWELL UP TO 12 FT ACCOMPANIES THE BAND 
OF TRADES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK.  
$$

CHRISTENSEN