000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 02N79W TO 02N96W TO 02N110W TO 
03N125W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 
10N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE ROCKIES/ 
PLAINS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO...BUT 
HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT 
CENTERED NEAR 26N135W IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND 
LIKELY EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 125W-137W. FARTHER 
S...UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF A HIGH IS ENHANCING SOME 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ W OF 115W. A SERIES OF DEEP LAYER LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CONUS OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY DRAGGING COLD FRONTS OVER NRN 
MEXICO/BAJA. HOWEVER...THE NEXT STRONG FRONT LOOKS TO AFFECT A 
LARGER PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICS THIS WEEKEND.

AT THE SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH NW OF THE 
ZONE AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 
NE/E 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF ABOUT 110W. SIMILAR 
MAGNITUDE NLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED OFF THE BAJA COAST. LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PRES/WIND 
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS NE 20 KT WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS 
REGIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI