000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 05N78W 
TO 03N93W TO 05N114W TO 07N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
89W AND 94W AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 134W AND 
138W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TO MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT 
AMPLIFIED OVER N WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TROUGH CURRENTLY 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDING NORTH TO A MID LEVEL LOW 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD.  THE QUIKSCAT 
PASS FROM 1320 UTC HAD SHOWN WINDS TO 25 KT OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT PASSING QUICKLY TO THE EAST...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO FALL 
BELOW 20 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  STRONGER WINDS...IN THE 25 TO 30 
KT RANGE...OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 25N 
SHOULD ALSO ABATE SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE 
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THESE NE 
WATERS TOMORROW...INCREASING WINDS TO 25 KT AGAIN OFF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY MON AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST N OF NW WATERS...BUT 
IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT THE SURFACE AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES 
EASTWARD.  THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO ITS S 
ALONG 30N140W TO 25N130W TO 23N111W IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT A FEW DEGREES NORTH.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.  THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED 
BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS REGION WHERE THE WESTERLY 
JET SPLITS...TAKING THE JET CORE ON A SOUTHWARD TURN S OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N102W WHILE SOME OF THE WESTERLY 
FLOW IS DIRECTED INTO THE ANTICYCLONE...PASSING N OF THE UPPER 
HIGH CENTER.

GAP WINDS...THE 1138 QUIKSCAT PASS STILL SUPPORTS WINDS TO 30 KT 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
HERE OVER THE NEXT DAY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY 
BY TUE AS PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
CARIBBEAN UNDER THIS PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN.  
SIMILARLY...THE WINDS OFF WESTERN PANAMA...WHICH WERE AT 20 TO 
25 KT ACCORDING TO THE 1448 ASCAT PASS...SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE IMPACT OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN 
IS ALREADY BEING FELT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE THE 1626 
ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN THE WIND FIELD 
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND WINDS TO 30 KT WERE 
CONFINED TO VERY CLOSE TO SHORE.  WINDS HERE SHOULD DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT BY MON EVENING.  

$$
SCHAUER CLARK