000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N77W TO 
02N95W TO 06N110W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 122W TO 
134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF ABOUT 15N. THIS 
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS WHILE 
CONTRACTING TO NORTH OF 20N. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND IS APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 24 
HOUR THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND 
WEAKENING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES...HOWEVER 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW BUT BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES FURTHER 
NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE AS IT 
MOVES OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.

ELSEWHERE BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH BROKEN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS 
IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 130W.

WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTH PART 
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
NEAR 20N120W.  OTHERWISE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 
105W. REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS BROAD TROUGH.

GAP WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC REGION OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL FALL TO 
20 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.

GAP WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL FALL 
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS IN GULF OF PANAMA REGION OF 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
LL