000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...01N79W TO 
02N90W TO 05N110W TO 07N125W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 
112W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WITH 
AN AXIS NEAR 125W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE AXIS 
MOVING OVER WESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND CONTINUING EAST 
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BE ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER 
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N 
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SHORTWAVE AND ARE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM OF THE POINT 30N124W.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW. 

WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N117W TO 27N120W TO 
21N130W. STRONG RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT AND A 
BROAD RIDGE IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE NORTH OF ABOUT 13N W OF 100W. A 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE.

GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD FALL TO LESS THAN 
GALE FORCE IN 06 HOURS AND LESS THAN 20 KT IN 42 HOURS. GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT SHOULD END WITHIN 12 HOURS BUT WINDS OF 20 
TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE FALLING TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 36 HOURS.
  
$$
LL