000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070346
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N77W TO 02N97W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 112W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N125W TO 18N125W.  WEAK JET 
CORE 95 KT SWINGS NE N OF 28N FROM 117W-120W ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SRN CALIFORNIA AT THE SAME TIME AND 
PLACE WHERE STRONG SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN.  POSSIBILITY OF 
STRONG DEEP CONVECTION INCREASES WITH SUCH UNSTABLE AIR MASS 
UNDER JET STREAM SPECIALLY LATE SAT WHEN MAXIMUM HEATING TAKES  
PLACE.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S PANAMA ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND MEXICO INTO TEXAS.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
CAUSE VERY DRY STABLE AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS S OF 18N E OF 
125W...EXCEPT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST N OF ITCZ FROM 
112W-120W. 

GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN 
12 HRS.  SIMILARLY...GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT SHOULD END 
WITHIN 18 HRS AND GULF OF PANAMA LAST SLIGHTLY LONGER BUT SHOULD 
ALSO ABATE WITHIN 42 HRS.  ALL GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH 1033 HIGH PRES CENTER CURRENTLY WEAKENING OVER FLORIDA AND 
MOVING E THUS RELAXING PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING GAP WINDS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES