000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062219
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N82W TO 02N105W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 108W-115W AND 
WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS FROM 127W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N125W TO 19N125W.  WEAK JET 
CORE 90 KT SWINGS NE N OF 30N FROM 117W-125W ADVECTING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SRN CALIFORNIA AT THE SAME TIME AND PLACE 
WHERE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN.  POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DEEP 
CONVECTION INCREASES WITH SUCH UNSTABLE AIR MASS UNDER JET 
STREAM.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND MEXICO INTO TEXAS.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
CAUSE VERY DRY STABLE AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS S OF 15N E OF 
125W...EXCEPT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST N OF ITCZ 108W- 
115W AND 127W-133W. 

GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN 
18 HRS.  SIMILARLY...GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT SHOULD END 
WITHIN 24 HRS AND GULF OF PANAMA LAST SLIGHTLY LONGER BUT SHOULD 
ALSO ABATE WITHIN 48 HRS.  ALL GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH 1036 HIGH PRES CENTER CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA BUT MOVING E 
AND RELAXING PRES GRADIENT DIMINISHING GAP WINDS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES