000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060345
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 02N79W TO 04N91W TO 03N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W-93W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 32N121W TO 20N135W.  JET STREAM 95 
KT N OF 30N BRINGS SOME MOISTURE INTO SRN CALIFORNIA WHILE 80 KT 
FLOW ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
CENTRAL MEXICO.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG CENTRAL 
AMERICA THROUGH WRN MEXICO TO ARIZONA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE KEEP BASIN DRY E OF 110W...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF 
MINOR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM SRN COLOMBIA AND 
ENCROACHING ALONG ITCZ FROM 88W-93W. 

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N116W TO 27N121W CARRIES MOST 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION N OF 33N.  COMPLEX GALE CENTER N OF 
AREA PUSH REINFORCING TROUGH SE ALONG 30N INCREASING WINDS LATE 
SAT AND LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO E PAC SPREADING S AS FAR 
DOWN AS 03N.  

STRONG HIGH PRES OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO FORCING STORM FORCE 
WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO GALE 
WITHIN 6 HRS AND BELOW GALE BY 36 HRS.  SIMILARLY...GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE WITHIN 
36 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER ATLC MOVES FURTHER E.  GULF OF PANAMA 
STRONG WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS 
GRADIENT WITH 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA REMAINS HIGHER THAN 
NORMAL.

$$
WALLY BARNES