000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 02N80W TO 03N120W TO 05N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 91W. 


...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 32N123W TO 20N140W.  JET STREAM 100 
KT N OF 30N BRINGS SOME MOISTURE INTO SRN CALIFORNIA WHILE 65 KT 
FLOW ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
CENTRAL MEXICO.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG CENTRAL 
AMERICA THROUGH MEXICO TO ARIZONA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE KEEP BASIN DRY S OF 20N E OF 120W...WITH POSSIBLE 
EXCEPTION OF MINOR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM SRN 
COLOMBIA AND ENCROACHING ALONG ITCZ E OF 91W. 

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 26N123W CARRIES MINOR 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.  COMPLEX GALE CENTER N OF AREA PUSH LARGE 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO E PAC SPREADING S AS FAR DOWN AS 05N.
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO FORCING STORM FORCE 
WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO GALE 
WITHIN 12 HRS AND BELOW GALE BY 30 HRS.  SIMILARLY...GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
WITHIN 36 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER ATLC MOVES FURTHER E.  GULF OF 
PANAMA STRONG WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS 
GRADIENT WITH 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA REMAINS HIGHER THAN 
NORMAL.

$$
WALLY BARNES