000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 06N77W TO 02N92W TO 05N110W TO 05N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 36N130W SHIFTING 
MORE NE PULLING ITS SUPPORT OF SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 
30N125W TO 27N130W TO 21N135W.  COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND DIFFUSES 
TO FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N121W TO 22N132W TO 24N126W THU.  MID- 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA EXTENDS NW TO THE FOUR 
CORNERS AREA.  WEAK JET CORE BARELY 75 KT TRAPPED BETWEEN RIDGE 
AND VORTEX ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WELL W OF E 
PAC WATERS ACROSS INTO SRN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN 
MEXICO.  STRONGER JET SPINS AROUND BASE OF UPPER VORTEX BUT 
MOISTURE ROTATES N OF AREA WITHIN 24 HRS.  ELSEWHERE E PAC 
REMAINS VERY DRY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FORCED BY 
RIDGE AND CONFLUENT FLOW WITH VORTEX.

STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT 
REMAIN CONTAINED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY BUT LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS SPREAD SE TO REACH 03N BY FRI.  ALTHOUGH 110 KT 
JET MAKES MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION...IT MOSTLY REMAINS 
N OF 30N WHERE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT EXIST.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION NOTED...NOT EVEN ALONG ITCZ.  

HIGH PRES 1039 MB OVER SE CONUS FORCING STORM FORCE N WINDS 
ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE 
BY FRI AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEAKENS. 

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA WHICH HAVE SUFFERED GALE FORCE NE 
WINDS FORCED BY COLD FRONT OVER NWRN CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH NEXT TWO DAYS.  STRONG TRADES IN SW 
CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TO SEEP THROUGH PANAMA WITH STRONG N-NE 
WINDS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SE INTO GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES