000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042226 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED FEB 04 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS 06N77W TO 01N95W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120 NM N OF AXIS E OF 88W. ...DISCUSSION... WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 35N131W SHIFTING MORE NE PULLING ITS SUPPORT OF SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 30N127W TO 27N130W TO 23N136W. COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND DIFFUSES TO FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N123W TO 22N132W TO 24N126W THU. MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 06N8W EXTENDS NW TO NEW MEXICO. WEAK JET CORE BARELY 65 KT TRAPPED BETWEEN RIDGE AND VORTEX ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WELL W OF E PAC WATERS ACROSS INTO SRN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. STRONGER JET SPINS AROUND BASE OF UPPER VORTEX BUT MOISTURE ROTATES N OF AREA WITHIN 24 HRS. ELSEWHERE E PAC REMAINS VERY DRY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FORCED BY RIDGE AND CONFLUENT FLOW WITH VORTEX. STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT REMAIN CONTAINED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS SPREAD SE TO REACH 03N BY FRI. ALTHOUGH 115 KT JET MAKES MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION...IT MOSTLY REMAINS N OF 30N WHERE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT EXIST. ELSEWHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE DEVELOPMENT E OF 88W ALONG ITCZ. HIGH PRES 1039 MB OVER SE CONUS FORCING STORM FORCE N WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY FRI AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEAKENS. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA WHICH HAVE SUFFERED GALE FORCE NE WINDS FORCED BY COLD FRONT OVER NWRN CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH NEXT TWO DAYS. STRONG TRADES IN SW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TO SEEP THROUGH PANAMA WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SE INTO GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH FRI. $$ WALLY BARNES