000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041501
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1400 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CAN BE FOUND ALONG A LINE 
FROM 06N77W TO 00N94W TO 02N110W TO 03N120W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 79W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ALSO 
BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF 06N85W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT OVER NW WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N135W.  THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER 
FORECAST WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE COLD FRONT 
WILL DISSIPATE AND PULL EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A NEW 
MID LATITUDE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH 
PACIFIC...REINFORCING THE BROAD TROUGH OVER N WATERS AND MOVING 
THE CURRENT LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THU 
AFTERNOON.  LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL 
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY.

WEST OF THE AREA...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED SW OF HAWAII IS 
EXPECTED TO EDGE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS.  CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND OVER 
FORECAST WATERS W OF 137W FROM 07N TO 15N IN THE REGION OF UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY 
UPPER JET ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW.

CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
AXIS CENTERED FROM 05N90W TO THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER.  
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 
NM N AND 30 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 79W AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 
NM OF 06N85W.  THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BRINGING MORE CONFLUENT FLOW 
ON ITS WESTERN EDGE OVER THIS REGION.  EXPECT THE CONVECTION 
HERE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL.

THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THE 
LAST TWO DAYS HAS PASSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO 
HONDURAS.  AS A RESULT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GALE 
FORCE THERE THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  STRONG TRADES IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO BLEED THROUGH PANAMA...WITH 
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY...THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE REACHED STORM FORCE AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN AROUND STORM STRENGTH HERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A 
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACHING THE REGION.  THE 
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF/RIO 
GRANDE VALLEY.  

$$
SCHAUER CLARK