000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 02N93W TO 06N104W TO 03N118W TO 05N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 83W-88W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 35N136W HAS TROUGH TO 21N140W 
SUPPORTING STRONG COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W, 
COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E AND 300 NM W OF 
BOUNDARY N OF 28N.  FRONT DISSIPATES WITHIN 48 HRS BUT LARGE 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS SPREAD SE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  JET CORE 
100 KT SWINGS AROUND BASE OF VORTEX AND SECONDARY CORE 70 KT 
ALONG 25N W OF 122W CAUSING MODERATE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
WITH MINOR CONVECTION AS MOST OF LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS 
VERY DRY.  MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 03N91W COVERS 
ENTIRE E PAC E OF 122W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER RIDGE UMBRELLA.  EVEN ITCZ HAS HARD TIME 
DEVELOPING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

ELSEHERE AT THE SURFACE...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE WITHIN 06-12 HRS AND REMAIN 
AT THE UPPER LIMITS OF STORM STRENGTH BY THE END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THEN.  
STRONG W CARIBBEAN WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT CROSS INTO GULFS OF 
PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 
WED.  EVEN GULF OF PANAMA GET STRONG WINDS CROSSING OVER 
MOUNTAIN PASSES.   

$$
WALLY BARNES