000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032221
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 02N91W TO 05N103W TO 03N120W TO 06N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS E OF 87W 
AND W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 34N137W HAS TO 25N140W 
SUPPORTING STRONG COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM 30N134W TO 24N140W, 
COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E AND 300 NM W OF 
BOUNDARY N OF 27N.  FRONT DISSIPATES WITHIN 48 HRS BUT LARGE 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS SPREAD SE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  JET CORE 
90 KT SWINGS AROUND BASE OF VORTEX AND SECONDARY CORE 70 KT 
ALONG 25N W OF 122W CAUSING MODERATE UPPER DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH 
MINOR CONVECTION AS MOST OF LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY 
DRY.  MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 05N90W COVERS ENTIRE E 
PAC E OF 120W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE UNDER RIDGE UMBRELLA.  EVEN ITCZ HAS HARD TIME 
DEVELOPING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

ELSEHERE AT THE SURFACE...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE WITHIN 12-24 HRS AND REMAIN 
AT THE UPPER LIMITS OF STORM STRENGTH BY THE END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THEN.  WRN 
CARIBBEAN WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT CROSS INTO GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND FONSECA LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 
WED.  EVEN GULF OF PANAMA GET STRONG WINDS CROSSING OVER 
MOUNTAIN PASSES.      

$$
WALLY BARNES