000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS 
FROM 05N80W TO 02N90W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM THE 
1009 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AT 05N80W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N119W IS WEAKENING AS IT IS 
SLOWLY OVERTAKEN BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WATERS.  THIS 
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  HIGH CLOUDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY REACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING AWAY 
FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM IT HAD TAPPED INTO S OF 
HAWAII.  CURRENTLY...THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER FORECAST 
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
ENCOUNTER THE MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 130W S OF 
20N WHICH HAS A POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH 
RANGE...ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE NOT 
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT IN THE REGION OF HIGH MOISTURE 
AVAILABILITY...SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL 
ORGANIZED.  NW SWELL WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE SFC COLD  
FRONT...WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 20 FT EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS BY 
WED.

ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET IS CENTERED NEAR THE 
LINE FROM 08N102W TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET HAS INDUCED 
VERTICAL LIFT OF THE MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA.  
SHALLOW CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY TO THE W OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 00N103W TO 07N101W.  THIS JET MAX WILL GRADUALLY BE 
PULLING EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH 
GUATEMALA HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...SLACKENING 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  N TO NW 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY AFTERNOON.  THIS COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT A SURGE OF 
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE PACIFIC.  CURRENTLY...THE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE AND 
SHOULD BE TO STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN AROUND STORM STRENGTH HERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A 
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT.  
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL ALSO REACH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BY WED 
MORNING.  AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS WILL ALSO TURN NORTHEASTERLY 
AND INCREASE IN THE GULF OF FONSECA.  STRONG TRADES IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BLEED THROUGH PANAMA ON 
WED...INCREASING WINDS HERE ABOVE 20 KT.     

$$
SCHAUER CLARK