000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE 
FROM 03N78W TO 05N88W TO 02N105W TO 06N127W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 
60 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 80W...NEAR THE W COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE TAIL END OF THE ZONAL UPPER JET MAX CENTERED ALONG 27N WILL 
PULL THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND E OF THE AREA TODAY...MAKING 
WAY FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER FORECAST WATERS.  THE MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N125W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT 
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TODAY BUT IS EVENTUALLY OVERTAKEN BY THE 
NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH TO ENTER NW WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL N 
PACIFIC.  THIS TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF 
HAWAII.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A CONNECTION TO LOW 
TO MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN WATERS 
TOMORROW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT...SO 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED.  THE COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NW 
WATERS TOMORROW MORNING.  NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE 
FRONT...WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 20 FT EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS BY 
WED.

ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET IS CENTERED NEAR THE 
LINE FROM 08N105W TO 17N100W.  DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET HAS INDUCED VERTICAL LIFT OF THE 
MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA.  SHALLOW CONVECTION IS 
NOTED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 00N100W TO 09N96W....WITH 
CONVECTION POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO IS INCREASING 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE N TO NW 
WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING.  
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW 
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE PACIFIC OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT...REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE 
MORNING AND STORM FORCE BY TUE EVENING.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN AROUND MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH THERE FROM TUE EVENING 
THROUGH WED...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED 
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT.  THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL ALSO REACH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 
30 KT.  AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS WILL ALSO TURN NORTHEASTERLY 
AND INCREASE IN THE GULF OF FONSECA ABOVE 20 KT.
      
$$
SCHAUER CLARK