000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N90W TO 04N100W TO 05N120W TO 03N130W TO 
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N125W TO 25N135W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-27N W 
OF 132W...WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SE OF THE TROUGH FLOWING 
INTO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE FLAT RIDGE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW 
EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 01N97W TO 20N110W. 
A 90-110 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM 25N130W TO THE CENTRAL BAJA 
PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 130 KT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF 
THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N E OF 120W. 
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 5N. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 11N125W TO THE EQUATOR AT 102W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 14N104W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITHIN THE RIDGE 
N OF 20N W OF 125W. THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED 
EWD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS WEAKENED 
WITH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT. GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE FORECAST IN 36 HOURS HOWEVER. 20 KT GAP WINDS ALSO EXTEND W 
OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.  
       
$$
FORMOSA