000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N90W TO 04N100W TO 05N120W TO 05N140W.   
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 25N135W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-27N W 
OF 132W...WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SE OF THE TROUGH FLOWING 
INTO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE FLAT RIDGE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW 
EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 01N97W 17N105W 
THEN ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A 90-110 KT JET STREAM 
EXTENDS FROM 25N130W TO THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA WHERE WINDS 
INCREASE TO 130 KT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N E OF 115W. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR 
ACROSS THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 5N. 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 11N125W TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 107W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 18N110W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITHIN THE RIDGE 
N OF 20N W OF 125W. THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED 
EWD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS WEAKENED 
WITH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 
GALE FORCE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST IN LESS THAN 48 
HOURS HOWEVER. 20 KT GAP WINDS EXTEND W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
       
$$
FORMOSA