000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W TO 02N110W TO 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE FROM 05N128W TO 06N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 14N117W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A GENTLE CREST ALONG POINTS 14N140W 
TO 31N124W BECOMING A FLAT RIDGE TO 29N106W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS 
NEAR 31N136W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 24N140W. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH 
SWINGS E IT IS BEGINNING TO ERODE THE RIDGE NEAR 22N136W. SOME 
UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH 150 NM OF THE UPPER CYCLONE. A 
MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION THAT 
FLARED W OF AREA NEAR 160W...AND FROM NEW ITCZ CONVECTION 
DESCRIBED ABOVE...IS STREAMING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 14N140W 
TO 27N123W TO 26N100W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE OVER 
THE WATERS S OF 07N E OF 80W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 19N108W. 
SURFACE WINDS TO THE SW OF THIS RIDGE CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT 
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT NEAR 07N138W. WINDS NE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE 
AT NW 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BUT EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BRIEFLY MON AFTERNOON. 

GAPS...MINIMAL GALE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS 
MORNING...AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TONIGHT. 
THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE ASSOCIATED N SWELLS 
SUBSIDE OVER THE PAC WATERS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W 
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE POSTED NEXT GALE AT 48 HOURS FOR 06 
UTC TUE. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS WINDS WILL MAX AT 45 KT WITH SEAS 
MAXING ABOUT 15 FT IN NOW COLDER WATERS TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS IN 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE ALSO BEEN SURGING AT 
20 KT WITH A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT. HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT SEEM TO 
SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA...BUT THAT AREA ON EDGE OF 
LATEST ASCAT PASS. ANYWAY EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT BRIEFLY TUE THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS NEXT COLD 
FRONT MOVES INTO W CARIBBEAN. N WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF GULF 
OF PANAMA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
       
$$
NELSON