000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010347 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN FEB 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 5N92W 3N102W 2N116W 2N122W 3N130W 2N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PRETTY MUCH ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 17N E OF ABOUT 127W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60-90 KT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 20N140W...AND CONTINUES TO 52N135W THEN E TO 22N120W AND ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO WRN MEXICO. THE JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION ENE TO NEAR 120W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N130W TO 25N132W TO N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N137W. THIS RIDGE PRECEDES A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM 32N136W SW TO 25N140W...BUT IS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EWD AND AMPLIFYING AS THE TROUGH ALSO ADVANCES E. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FORMS ALONG OR NEAR 30N121W SUN NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION AS A TROUGH NEAR THE NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TO N OF THE AREA. A STRONG HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S THROUGH 32N131W TO 26N124W TO 22N114W TO NEAR 19N109W. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STAY N OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WRN SECTION OF THE AREA FROM 10N-21N W OF 135W...AND FROM 16N-27N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE DIFFLUENT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING. ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE JET STREAM MENTIONED ABOVE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N128W SE TO 8N124W TO NEAR 2N118W. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH...AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE NEAR 6N95W. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR E OF ABOUT 120W WHERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING W...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS MID/UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THIS AREA. PERSISTENT NE TRADE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 5N-20N W OF 125W DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY THE RIDGE MENTIONED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ZONE ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE W OF THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF NE-E 20 KT WINDS REMAINING OVER A PORTION OF THE WRN PART OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STRONG HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA MOVES S AND WEAKENS SOME...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT RIDGE AXIS TO W OF 140W. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE IN THE 9-11 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SUBSIDE TO 9 FT JUST W OF THE AREA ON MON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PRETTY TIGHT ALONG SRN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO SE ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT IS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER NRN MEXICO ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN OVER SE MEXICO NEAR GAP PASSAGES. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0016 UTC THIS EVENING SHOWED GALE WINDS OF 30-35 KT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE COAST. IN ADDITION...LATEST SSTS FROM THE GULF SHOW A VERY NOTICEABLE AREA OF INCREASING UPWELLING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LAPSE RATES IN THE AREA TO BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE GALE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE SUN MORNING. MAIN MARINE ISSUE THEN BECOMES LINGERING NE SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE SW AWAY FROM THE GULF AS IT SUBSIDES TO 8 FT BY SUN EVENING. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS MAY REACH AS FAR W AS 103W FROM 6N-10N BY THAT TIME. $$ AGUIRRE