000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JAN 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 6N90W 5N100W 1N108W 2N125W 3N132W 3N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... THE TAIL END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SWRN U.S. SW INTO THE AREA TO A FORMING ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THROUGH 32N123W...THEN CONTINUES W TO 32N130W. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF THE AREA STRETCHING ALONG 150W. A 1035 MB HIGH CENTER WELL WELL N OF THE AREA IS NEAR 40N132W EXTENDS RIDGING S TO COVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING ESE NEAR 42N127W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ESE TOWARDS THE U.S W COAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS THEN FORECAST TO ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN BOUNDARY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY N OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60-90 KT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 19N140W...AND CONTINUES TO 20N130W TO 22N120W NE TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION NEWD TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. CLOUDS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WRN SECTION FROM 15N-26N W OF 130W. EXPECT AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN THIS AREA SINCE IT LIES UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM...AND IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HERE IS BECOMING DIFFLUENT WITH TIME AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS E AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES 140W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N128W SE TO 11N126W TO 5N121W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 116W. TO THE E OF TROUGH... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA...NAMELY THE ERN PORTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE NEAR 7N95W. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR E OF ABOUT 120W WHERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING W...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS MID/UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY THE RIDGE MENTIONED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH AND LOWER PRES TO THE S OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ZONE HAS BEEN BRINGING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE W OF THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF NE-E 20 KT WINDS REMAINING OVER A PORTION OF THE WRN PART OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EWD SOME. SEAS IN THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WITH A NE SWELL DIMINISHING TO 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... NE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRI EVENING AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS WILL BE A STRONG GALE EVENT GOING INTO SAT MORNING WITH A SHORT-LIVED STORM FORCE WINDS A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY AS SSTS ARE RATHER WARM IN THE GULF BASED ON LATEST SST ANALYSIS OF THE E PAC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR VERY GOOD INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. $$ AGUIRRE