000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292206 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JAN 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 6N90W 5N100W 2N110W 2N120W 3N130W 3N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... THE TAIL END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N123W TO COL REGION AT 32N130W. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORMING AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRES THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRESENT JUST N OF THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1039 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 42N131W. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN BOUNDARY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY N OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60-90 KT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 19N140W...AND CONTINUES TO 20N130W TO 22N120W NE TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION NEWD TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N130W SE TO 13N126W TO NEAR 04N120W. TO THE E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH AND S OF THE JET STREAM BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA...NAMELY THE ERN PORTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE NEAR 7N95W. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR E OF ABOUT 120W WHERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING W...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS MID/UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THIS AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 130W IS BRINGING NE-E WINDS OF 20-250 KT WINDS TO THOSE WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. THESE WINDS DIMINISH TO 20 KT IN 24 HOURS WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN NE SWELL. GAP WINDS... NE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN PERHAPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRI EVENING AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS WILL BE A STRONG GALE EVENT GOING INTO SAT MORNING WITH A SHORT-LIVED STORM FORCE WINDS A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY. $$ AGUIRRE