000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290337 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JAN 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 4N89W 2N102W 1N115W 2N130W 2N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... THE TAIL END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N125W TO NEAR 29N129W. TO ITS W...A DIFFUSING ELONGATED MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 29N136W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH STRETCHING SEWD TO 25N133W TO 20N129W THEN SHARPENS AS ITS EXTENDS TO 15N126W TO 11N122W TO NEAR 6N121W. THESE FEATURES ARE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ENVELOPE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT EXTENDS WELL N OF THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE MOVING NE AND CENTERED NEAR 40.5N138W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60-80 KT CROSSES THE ABOVE TROUGH AXIS FROM 17N134W THROUGH 24N125W TO 27N121W AND NE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION NE TO ACROSS MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. THE WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO LIFT N AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A RATHER VIGOROUS LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NW OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 40.5N137W IS THEN PUSHED ESE WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRI BY THE TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STAY N OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS WEAKER HIGH PRES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NRN SECTION OF THE AREA. TO THE SE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA... NAMELY THE ERN PORTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE NEAR 7N90W. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR E OF ABOUT 120W WHERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING W...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS MID/UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THIS AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N OF 20N W OF 122W IS BRINGING E 20-30 KT WINDS TO THOSE WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 10-14 FT IN E SWELL. THESE WINDS DIMINISH TO NE-E 20 KT IN 48 HOURS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. GAP WINDS... NE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN PERHAPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRI AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRI EVENING AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A STRONG GALE EVENT GOING INTO SAT MORNING WITH A SHORT-LIVED STORM EVENT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. $$ AGUIRRE