000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272355 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2355 UTC TUE JAN 27 2009 ...UPDATED FORECAST OF GALE WINDS AND UPPER FEATURES OVER W SECTION OF AREA... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 2100 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 4N90W 2N102W 2N117W 5N126W 6N134W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE SW U.S. AN AMPLIFYING DEEP RIDGE EXISTS TO THE SW OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA...AND STRETCHES SE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E 10 KT NEAR 7N88W. A RATHER BROAD QUASI- STATIONARY MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING NNE IS TO THE W OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 26N132W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SE TO 19N130W TO 13N123W...THEN BECOMES VERY NARROW TO NEAR 06N110W. THESE FEATURES ARE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ENVELOPE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT EXTENDS WELL N OF THE AREA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH AN ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 37N141W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 3N108W...THEN BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC S OF THE EQUATOR. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 138W FROM 17N-23N. WITH THE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE E OF THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS NOTED IN MID/UPPER SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND OBSERVATIONS IS PRESENT TO THE E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 114W-126W FROM 15N-29N. THIS IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 13N-30N E OF 130W. EMBEDDED SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N121W TO 17N118W. EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 117W-129W IS BEING ADVECTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM BRANCH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRACK NE AND GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT JUST NE OF THE AREA IN UPPER FLOW THAT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL BEYOND 48 HOURS PER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 37N141W AND RELATED RIDGING ALSO LIFT NE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL W OF THE AREA EJECTS NE WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CLIP THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE SE EXTENSION OF THE DEEP RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE E OF ABOUT 111W WHERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING W...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 9N112W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 106W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE AREA OF MID/UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE WINDS...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTING BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 138W AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN AN AREAS OF E 30-35 KT GALE WINDS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 127W-138W. MODELS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WINDS DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER LIFTS SOME TO THE N. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THESE WATERS WILL BE VERY HIGH SEAS IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE IN THE GALE AFFECTED AREA...AND 8-10 FT ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-28N. SEAS THERE SUBSIDE TO 8-10 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. STRONG PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE SW U.S. AND AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BRING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS TO THE GULF BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE AT CLOSE TO WITHIN THE NEXT 30 HOURS. NE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH SOME IN 48 HOURS AS SW CARIBBEAN TRADES WEAKEN DUE TO A LIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. $$ AGUIRRE