000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 4N90W 2N102W 2N117W 5N126W 
6N134W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE SW U.S. 
AN AMPLIFYING DEEP RIDGE EXISTS TO THE SW OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE
NE PORTION OF THE AREA...AND STRETCHES SE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE MOVING E 10 KT NEAR 7N88W. A RATHER BROAD QUASI-
STATIONARY MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING NNE IS TO THE 
W OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 26N132W. A TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SE TO 19N130W TO 13N123W. ANOTHER 
TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE AREA. 
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 138W FROM 17N-23N. WITH 
THE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE E OF THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION...UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS NOTED IN MID/UPPER SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND 
OBSERVATIONS IS PRESENT TO THE E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION BETWEEN 114W-126W FROM 15N-29N. THIS IS SUPPORTING A 
LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 13N-30N E 
OF 130W. EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE FROM 15N121W TO 17N119W. EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE 
CENTRAL
TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 117W-129W NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO MUCH
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO.

WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE WINDS...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
EXISTING
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 138W AND STRONG HIGH PRES 
CENTERED
N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN AN AREAS OF E 30-35 KT GALE WINDS
FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 127W-138W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH
TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER LIFTS 
SOME TO THE N. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THESE WATERS WILL BE VERY 
HIGH SEAS IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE IN THE GALE AFFECTED AREA...AND 
8-10 FT ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-28N. SEAS THERE SUBSIDE TO 8-10 FT IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS.

STRONG PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE SW U.S. AND AND NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BRING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE GULF BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW
GALE FORCE AT CLOSE TO WITHIN THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE THE AREA OF MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE S OF 20N E OF 110W. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS 
THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF THE 
ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 
9N112W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 106W.

$$
AGUIRRE