000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261034
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 02N79W TO 04N90W TO 03N107W TO 07N129W TO 07N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
130W-132W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT ITS 
BASE NEAR 24N134W DRIFTING W.  ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH 28N135W 
TO 25N138W PACKING VERY STRONG WINDS...SHORT OF GALE 
FORCE...ACROSS NW CORNER OF BASIN.  SECOND UNRELATED SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG 125W FROM 18N-22N ALSO CARRY STRONG EASTERLIES WITH 
BUILDING SEAS REACHING 15 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELLS.  
DOWNSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 07N90W MAINTAINS 
VERY DRY AIR MASS E OF 110W.  AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN 
RIDGE AND CYCLONIC VORTEX CAUSING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM 
14N-17N BETWEEN 124W-131W.

HIGH PRES CENTER 103 MB AT 34N135W MOVING SE EXPECTED TO SQUEEZE 
PRES GRADIENT AGAINST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INCREASING NW-N 
WINDS THERE WITHIN 12-18 HRS WITH LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER INCREASE 
WITHIN 36-48 HRS.  PRES GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO TIGHTEN IN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN NW WINDS.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS ABATING AND SHOULD BE 
BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 36 HRS.  GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD CONTINUE 
UNABATED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.  GULF OF PANAMA N WINDS DIMINISHED 
BELOW 20 KT AS LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY OVER COLOMBIA FORCING WINDS 
ACROSS ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DRIFTED OVER WATERS AND WINDS BECAME 
MORE EASTERLY.   

$$
WALLY BARNES