000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 
03N77W TO 05N83W TO 01N97W TO 06N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 130W TO 135W.


...DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NW WATERS 
HAS CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND THE DEEP LAYERED 
LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA 
IS WEAKENING AND WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO ITS N.  WINDS BETWEEN THESE 
TWO SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER NW 
WATERS...HOVERING JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.  THE ASCAT PASS AT 1934 
UTC SHOWED A SMALL POCKET OF WINDS CENTERED NEAR 29N136W IN THE 
30 TO 34 KT RANGE.  AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY 
JET ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW AND LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 
APPROACHING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW 
HAS BECOME A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND MODEL GUIDANCE 
AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION MON.  IN 
FACT...THE 1754 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SHARP TURNING IN THE 
WIND FIELD DEVELOPING NEAR 19N126W.  LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW 
FROM S OF 15N...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 117W TO 126W.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF 
THE GULF AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS WEAKENING.  WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND A RARE SURFACE OBSERVATION IN THE 
GULF...PHHD NEAR 25N110W...CONFIRMS THIS.  IT SHOWED WINDS HAD 
DIMINISHED TO 14 KT BY 1800 UTC.  OFF THE W COAST...THE 
FOLLOWING SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN AREA OF WINDS TO 20 KT 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE BAJA COAST N OF 25N....3FOC5 0200 UTC 
26N114W 19 KT...DPKZ 0000 UTC 30N117W 19 KT...C6FR3 0000 UTC 
26N114W 21 KT...ZCDG7 2100 UTC 28N116W 22 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED IN THE CONDITIONS HERE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GAP WINDS...ASCAT PASS AT 1616 UTC SHOWED THE AREA OF WINDS 
GREATER THAN 25 KT HAS CONTRACTED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO N OF 14N. WINDS ARE EXCEPTED TO GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH HERE TO BELOW 20 KT BY TUE EVENING.

FARTHER S...THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2332 UTC SHOWED WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA AND E OF 87.5W TO THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO.  BOTH OF THESE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WESTWARD OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTHWARD OF 
PANAMA...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND TRADE 
WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY AND 
STRONGER....BLEEDING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK