000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 
04N77W TO 01N100W TO 01N110W TO 06N132W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 132W 
TO 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A VERY COMPLICATED PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS 
NW WATERS HAS CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND THE DEEP 
LAYERED LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW 
PRESSURE AREA IS WEAKENING AND WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO ITS N.  WINDS 
BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE 
OVER NW WATERS...HOVERING JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.  THE QUIKSCAT 
PASS AT 1426 UTC SHOWED A SMALL POCKET OF WINDS CENTERED NEAR 
29N135W IN THE 30 TO 34 KT RANGE.  AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 
SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW AND LEFT FRONT 
QUADRANT OF THE APPROACHING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET ON THE SOUTH 
SIDE OF THE LOW HAS BECOME A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION 
AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THIS 
REGION MON.  IN FACT...THE 1424 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A 
SHARP TURNING IN THE WIND FIELD DEVELOPING NEAR 18N126W.  
ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW FROM S OF 15N...AND A 
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 
14N TO 29N BETWEEN 118W TO 127W.

THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1244 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN THE MOUTH OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN LOW PRES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF AND THE HIGH 
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT IS CURRENTLY 
BEING WEAKENING.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.  SURFACE OBSERVATION PHHD NEAR 
25N110W HAD ALREADY DIMINISHED TO 14 KT BY 1800 UTC.  OFF THE W 
COAST...SHIP OBSERVATIONS C6FR3 AND DPKZ...BOTH IN THE VICINITY 
OF 116N BETWEEN 28N AND 28.5N...HAVE REPORTED WINDS BETWEEN 19 
KT AND 21 KT AT 1800 UTC.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH HERE OVERNIGHT 
MON NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1242 UTC SHOWED THE WIND FIELD 
EXPANDED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 11N.  WINDS 
APPROACHED GALE FORCE AT THAT TIME...BUT SHOULD HAVE BEEN 
SLACKENING SINCE.  HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXCEPTED TO REMAIN 
ELEVATED OVER 20 KT HERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FARTHER S...THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1059 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 20 
KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT THE PASS MISSED THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO.  THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD OF 
PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF PANAMA THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY AND STRONGER....BLEEDING 
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK