000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251625 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JAN 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 05N77W TO 04N82W TO 02N102W TO 06N123W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 126W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NW U.S. THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 28N134W WITH TROUGH CONTINUING SSW TO AROUND 20N144W. VORTEX HAS BEGUN TO SEPARATE FROM UPPER TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO SINK SLOWLY S AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM MEAN FLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. E OF THIS TROUGH LIES THE REMNANTS OF A LINGERING TUTT LOW AND NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 21N127W TO NEAR 05N115W. BOTH OF THESE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HAVE SURFACE REFLECTIONS...WITH A 1017 MB LOW UNDERNEATH THE VORTEX AT 28N134W...AND MOVING SW AT 15 KT...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH REFLECTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE BELOW THE TUTT FROM 22N TO 10N. A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE N AND NW SEMICIRCLES OF THE 1017 MB LOW AND IS MAINTAINING NE TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT...MIXING MODERATE YET STEEP WIND WAVES WITH LARGE NW SWELLS...AND YIELDING COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT. WELL SE THROUGH S OF THIS LOW AND TO THE W OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...NELY WINDS OF 20 KT PREVAIL ALL THE WAY TO THE ITCZ...WITH AREAS OF 25 KT WIND W OF 130W. MIXED SEAS THROUGHOUT THIS ZONE ARE RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT. PERSISTENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES OF PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE AIDING IN ENHANCING THIS AREA OF WEATHER. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA E OF 125W THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THIS ZONE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING CLEARER AS TO THE FORCING. AS THE ABOVE UPPER VORTEX BECOMES CUT OFF AND SINKS S DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE TUTT REMNANTS AT MID TO LOW LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH S OF 22N AND BETWEEN 125W AND 122W. THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ITS E/SE...WHICH WILL BE OVER AND ACROSS THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONVECTION...AND ACT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW AROUND 20N122W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...N AND NW OF THIS BROAD TROUGHING WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND LEAD TO A BROAD ZONE OF NE TO E WINDS N OF 18N AND BUILDING SEAS...POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 15 FT IN MIXED WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SUSTAINED UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE E/SE SIDES OF THE CUT OFF LOW WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THIS ZONE THROUGH TUESDAY. E PAC SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH S PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 24-36 HRS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS JUMPED THE GUN AHEAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE YESTERDAY DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL VORTEX THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CAMPECHE...WITH A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING THE ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXPANDING FROM THE PAST EVENING...NOW S TO 14N....WITH 20 KT WINDS CONTINUING ON TO 12N. HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OPENS UP ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER S...THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FRESH WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS. THE STRONG ATLC/ CARIBBEAN HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. $$ STRIPLING