000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251026
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 05N77W TO 01N105W TO 05N125W TO 06N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 87W TO 92W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM 
32N129W TO 22N140W.  HEALTHY 130 KT JET CORE SWINGS AROUND 
TROUGH BASE JUST OFF 140W FORCING CONFLUENT FLOW AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE INTO WRN SIDE OF TROUGH.  

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRES WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES WITHIN NEXT 24 
HRS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NW.  STRONG NE WIND TRAPPED  
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS BECOMES MODERATE AS LOW PRES WEAKENS.  
NW SWELL GENERATED BY LOW PRES N OF AREA CONTINUE INVADING 
FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W.  

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTION NOT YET FULLY UNDERSTOOD AS IT HAS  
SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING IN REGION WITHIN 24-36 HRS WELL 
DISCONNECTED OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. 

E PAC HIGH PRES FORCING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
WITHIN 24-36 HRS.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS JUMPED THE GUN AHEAD OF 
MODEL GUIDANCE AND STARTED STRONG...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE 
REACHING ANY GALE STRENGTH.

FARTHER S...GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WINDS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS AS STRONG ATLC/ 
CARIBBEAN HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH STRONG NE ACROSS 
MOST OF WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLY BARNES