000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG AN AXIS FROM 
03N78W TO 04N85W TO 01N107W TO 06N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 90W AND WITHIN 75NM N AND 150 NM S 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 82W TO THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR.


...DISCUSSION...
A VERY COMPLICATED PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS 
NW WATERS IS CUTTING OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...BUT NOT 
BEFORE ACQUIRING MORE UPPER ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.  AS 
IT CUTS OFF...EXPECT THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. AT 
THE SURFACE...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT 
IS FORCED SOUTHWARD BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO IT NW.  WINDS 
BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE 
OVER NW WATERS.  NW SWELL CONTRIBUTED TO BY THIS LOW DOMINATES 
FORECAST WATERS.  AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHERLY JET 
ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW AND LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 
APPROACHING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW 
WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND MODEL 
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION 
SUN/MON.  

THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1310 UTC SHOWED WINDS BUILDING IN THE MOUTH 
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS 
BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING SQUEEZED 
EASTWARD BY THE LOW OVER NW WATERS.  THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OVER SE WATERS...THERE IS SOME SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR 
TODAY...WITH QUIKSCAT SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE 
GENERALLY WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE COAST S OF 06N.  THE UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA IS INDUCING DIFFLUENT 
FLOW BETWEEN IT AND THE NE WINDS FARTHER S ALONG THE COAST OF 
ECUADOR.  THIS ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY SUNDAY.

GAP WINDS...THE ASCAT PASS AT 1636 UTC ONLY HIT THE FAR WESTERN 
EDGE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SHOWED WINDS WELL LESS THAN 
20 KT...BUT THE LAST QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTING WINDS OVER 20 KT 
AND THE OBSERVATION AT MINATITLAN IN THE FAR SOUTH BAY OF 
CAMPECHE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KTS...WOULD SUSPECT 
WINDS ARE STILL TO 20 KT CLOSE IN THE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD HERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT 
TO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.

FARTHER S...THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1456 UTC CONFIRMS 
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE 
PREVIOUS TWO QUIKSCAT PASSES SHOWED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 
20 KT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE TWO 
REGIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK