000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241623 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JAN 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N84W TO 03N93W TO 03N102W TO 05N117W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS W OF 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH AXIS ALONG 118/119W FROM 08N TO 17N. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTING A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER VORTEX NEAR 31N132W EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE 1015 MB SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME OCCLUDED WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE PAST 24-36 HOURS NOW THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY... EXTENDING FROM 30N128W TO 24N135W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT ARE LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT WITHIN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND OUTER WRN QUAD OF LOW AND BEYOND...A TIGHT GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST 12 TO 14 FT BY WWIII. THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SE THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH THE UPPER VORTEX THEN EXPECTED TO CUT OFF AND SINK VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AND FARTHER N...N AND NE ON THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW. A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH THIS UPPER VORTEX AND COULD BECOME REINVIGORATED BY 48 HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG AND E OF THE DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND INTERACTION OCCURS WITH A LOW LEVEL ELY WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING 120W. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS NRN S AMERICA AND THE SRN CARIB THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WWD AND INTO THE EPAC OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A TUTT AXIS FROM NEAR 12N118W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS LINGERING FEATURE CONTINUES TO INDUCE PERIODIC WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR AND E OF 120W...AND LOW LATITUDE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THIS WEAKENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING ATTM...AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER. A 1023 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE NW...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CREATING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ON THE N AND NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING 120W...YIELDING 20 KT WIND FLOW EXTENDING SW TO THE ITCZ ALONG 140W. THE LATEST PULSE OF NWLY SWELL GENERATED BY THE DEEP LAYERED LOW HAS PROPAGATED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES NW OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 120W TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NELY WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE PRESENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND IS YIELDING 20 KT NLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND 20-25 KT NELY FLOW THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH RETURN SLY FLOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...A LOW LEVEL VORTEX ACROSS THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO BRING A RETURN TO NLY WINDS OF 20 KT INSIDE THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED BY 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BEGINNING TO REACH 8 FT THERE. $$ STRIPLING