000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG AN AXIS FROM 
08N83W TO 01N97W TO 07N119W TO 05N133W TO 06N140W. THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THIS 
HOUR AND ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 20 KT THIS 
EVENING THROUGH SUN MORNING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO 
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  THIS 
COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH 
THE SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE 
POSITIVELY TILTED...SKEWING THE FLOW MORE EAST OF NORTH AND 
PREVENTING WINDS FROM REACHING GALE FORCE AS THEY PUSH INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  TO THE SOUTH...WINDS IN THE GULFS OF 
FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE 20 TO 25 KT 
RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS 
CONSISTENTLY STRONGER OVER THIS REGION....WEDGED BETWEEN MEAN 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO AND 
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA.  EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...WINDS 
HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ACCORDING TO THE 
1518 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH NO LONGER SHOWS WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 
KT RANGE.  WITH WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TURNING MORE EAST OF 
NORTH...EXPECT THE WINDS BLEEDING THROUGH PANAMA INTO THE 
PACIFIC TO SOON DROP BELOW 20 KT.

ELSEWHERE...THE DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N130W IS 
EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...CAUSING THE SUPPORTING TROUGH TO AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY 
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NW WATERS IS 
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NW ADVANCES 
EASTWARD AND THIS LOW IS REINVIGORATED...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO 
BUILD TO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE HERE SUN.  MEANWHILE...THE HIGH 
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SQUEEZED 
BETWEEN THE LOW AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE MOUTH OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

FINALLY...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE EDGE OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH FROM 
21N106W TO 08N122W HAS WEAKENED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION SEEN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N113W TO 17N105W.  
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE 
40 TO 50 KT RANGE ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED HERE AND WILL MOST 
LIKELY SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE 
DEEP LAYER LOW TO THE NW.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK