000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231013
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 04N93W TO 06N114W TO 05N132W TO 05N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS AND 45 NM N 
OF AXIS E OF 79W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM 24N107W TO 00N117W BRINGS 
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...MAINLY ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS... 
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO IN AN OTHERWISE VERY DRY E PAC BASIN.  
NARROW UPSTREAM RIDGE AND BROAD RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA 
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR MASS COVERING THE 
REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS.  DRYNESS EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA INTO WRN CARIBBEAN AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO AS ATLC RIDGE 
1026 MB CENTERED OVER FLORIDA KEEPS STRONG HOLD ON BOTH OTHER 
BASINS WITH STRONG NE WINDS CROSSING INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
WELL AS GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  AS RIDGE DRIFTS E GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WINDS DIMINISH AND SHOULD GET BELOW 20 KT WITHIN NEXT 6-12 HRS 
WHILE PAPAGAYO STILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS.  

BURST OF NE WINDS ACROSS WRN CARIBBEAN SENT SURGE OF 20 KT WINDS 
INTO GULF OF PANAMA BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH 
PRES MOVES E.  

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 114W...REFLECTION OF ONE ALOFT 
EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HRS DIMINISHING 
ASSOCIATED 20 KT WINDS.

COLD FRONT 30N132W TO 23N140W BRING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS 
BEHIND...BUT ITS MAIN FEATURE IS LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
WHICH WILL SPREAD SE TO EVENTUALLY COVER MOST OF E PAC W OF 110W.

$$
WALLY BARNES