000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 03N80W TO 06N91W TO 05N99W TO 06N114W TO 
04N128W TO 05N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM 32N123W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX
AT 17N122W TO 05N120W KEEPS VERY DRY AIR MASS W OF AXIS.  
WEAKENING VORTEX CONTINUES TO CAUSE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT JUST E 
OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 127W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION.  VORTEX...DIFFLUENCE AND CONVECTION ALL DECREASING 
BUT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY AS BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE WILL NOT BUDGE FROM POSITION.  DRY AIR MASS ALSO UNDER 
RIDGE AREA E OF 105W.  MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED NE 
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WRN MEXICO BY WEAK STREAM BETWEEN 
RIDGE AND TROUGH.

WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 32N135W TO 20N140W WILL MERGE WITH 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 127W AND STALL BY WED.  HIGH PRES 1022 MB 
OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 12N110W 
CAPPING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISHING WITHIN 24 HRS ONLY TO 
RECOVER BY 48 HRS AND POSSIBLY REACH MINIMUM GALE FORCE WINDS 
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EXPECTED TO HOLD 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES