000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181621
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N83W TO 07N87W TO 04N94W TO 06N130W TO 
06N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 
102W-106W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MAIN UPPER FEATURE IS HEALTHY CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 21N123W 
EMBEDDED IN LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM 32N126W TO 14N122W. 
VORTEX BLOCKED FROM MOVING E BY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED 
AT 15N95W.  VORTEX WEAKENS BUT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN NEXT 48 
HRS CAUSING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THAT ENHANCES CONVECTION ALONG 
AND E OF SURFACE TROUGH NOW FROM 13N128W TO 22N127W. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT HAS EXPIRED BUT N-NE WINDS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20-25 KT THROUGH 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS E. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO STRONG NE WINDS WEAKENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 48 HRS. 

STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING E PAC BRINGS STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF 
BOUNDARY...BUT ITS REAL IMPACT IS LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS 
SPREADING SE ALL THE WAY TO EQUATOR W OF 110W BY 48 HRS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES