000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160812
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

04N77W 05N100W 07N125W 04N140W. ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 
7N86W 6N97W 7N110W 6N120W 7N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 
94W AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST AND 130W...AND NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 130W AND 
140W. A SMALL AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 26N TO 34N BETWEEN 
116W AND 125W. THIS FLOW IS AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
NEAR 31N121W. 

A TROUGH IS STRETCHED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...ALONG 30N136W 22N136W
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 12N131W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ALONG 14N125W 09N126W 06N127W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW IS ON TOP OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE 14N125W 06N127W SURFACE TROUGH. THE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 
100W AND 130W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN 
CLUSTERS...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W...FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 117W AND 119W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 
122W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING SOMEWHAT AND/OR 
STILL NOT COMPLETELY DEVELOPED...FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W 
AND 128W. FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 9W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
PANAMA AND 100W.

THE GFS MODEL BRINGS A COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 10 TO 13 FT BETWEEN 123W AND 140W
NORTH OF A FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 123W/124W.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM 22N126W BEYOND A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER NEAR 35N130W.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST USHERING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THIS TIME. GALE WIND CONDITIONS 
ARE FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS AND FOR 48W HOURS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. 
 
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT IN 6 TO 12 HOURS AS A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE WINDS MAY ARE EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MT