000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ ALONG 06N77W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC STORM WARNING KEPT FOR ANOTHER 6 HRS AS SHIP 
REPORT INDICATE CONTINUATION OF 50 KT WINDS...NEVERTHELESS 
EXPECTED TO GET BELOW STORM FORCE WITHIN 6 HRS AND CONTINUE AT 
GALE STRENGTH FOR 18 HRS MORE AS GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES SYSTEM 
MOVES E RELAXING GRADIENT.  SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS 
WITHIN 36 HRS KICKING YET ANOTHER EPISODE OF GALE FORCE WINDS 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS WHICH COULD EVEN REACH STORM FORCE AGAIN.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE WINDS TRICKLING FROM THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA LIKELY TO GET STRONGER WITHIN 48 HRS AS SURGE OF COLD AIR 
ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN AND LAST WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING 140W FORCING 
BROAD RIDGE OVER E PAC EASTWARD DECREASING PRES GRADIENT OVER SW 
CONUS.  THIS IN TURN SHOULD DIMINISH NW WINDS OVER GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BELOW 20 KT. 

ELSEWHERE...
AS BROAD RIDGE INCHES ITS WAY E...PREVIOUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS DIMINISH AND NOT EXPECTED BACK TILL AFTER NEXT RIDGE 
BUILDS FOLLOWING ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT.  THAT SHOULD BE 
WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...RIDGE WILL NOT SHIFT 
ENOUGH OVER NEXT 48 HRS TO ALLOW LONGWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE INTO E PAC WATERS.  ONLY LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS 
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN.  

$$
WALLY BARNES