000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JAN 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 08230 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W TO 07N100W TO 09N101W TO 07N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 83W TO 86W...WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 97W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S AND 75 NM N OF AXIS FROM 104W AND 109W. ...DISCUSSION... NEAR SHORE... THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0010 UTC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN AT STORM FORCE TILL MID DAY WED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO MINIMAL GALE BY EARLY THU ONLY TO COME BACK UP WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE SUBSIDED TO 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0250 UTC...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MODESTLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER PANAMA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0146 UTC OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOWS THAT WINDS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...BUT THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRES CENTER IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE RETURN OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM OF 12N115W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 11N104W. THIS CONVECTION IS SUSTAINED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEAKENING WESTERLY JET MAX AND ITS INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO ITS NORTH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE JET MAX WEAKENS BELOW 70 KT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF FORECAST WATERS AND E OF HAWAII WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD TROUGH WILL BE SHED TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE INTO THE BROAD...WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN FORECAST WATERS. THE ENHANCEMENT OF THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW HERE...WITH TRADE WINDS AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT HERE ON WED MORNING. $$ SCHAUER CLARK