000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 03N77W 
TO 07N100W TO 08N120W TO 05N133W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 95W TO 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

NEAR SHORE...
BOTH THE 0212 UTC QUIKSCAT AND 0456 ASCAT PASS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA CONFIRM THAT THE GALE EVENT THERE HAS ENDED.  THE 
HIGHER RESOLUTION AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS STILL SUPPORTS WINDS 
TO 30 KT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE FORECAST CALLS 
FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO 20 KT 
OR LESS.

THE COLD FRONT WHICH INITIATED THE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IS NOW BROKEN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH STRONG 
NORTHERLY FLOW PASSING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC.  BOTH THE 0034 UTC QUIKSCAT AND 0312 
ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM THE GALE...WITH QUIKSCAT SHOWING WINDS TO 
45 KT. WINDS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW STORM FORCE 
THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO A MARGINAL GALE BY 
EARLY TUE MORNING...BUT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS 
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE AFTERNOON...BRINGING 
WINDS BACK UP TO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT AND FINALLY 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WED/EARLY THU.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO SEE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT 
RANGE ACCORDING TO THE 0036 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.  UNFORTUNATELY... 
THE MAIN REGION OF HIGH WINDS MISSED THE QUIKSCAT SWATH AREA 
WHILE THE ENTIRE REGION WAS MISSED BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT 
PASS.  HOWEVER...WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH THE PASSES IN SOUTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS 
TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED.

ELSEWHERE...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 30N140W TOWARD 12N130W 
TO 10N115W AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET WESTERLY JET MAX CAN BE FOUND 
ON THE SW SIDE OF THIS TROUGH S OF 06N.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS JET MAX WHERE IT LIES CLOSEST 
TO THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 95W TO 115W. THE 
TROUGH AND JET MAX SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY THE 1041 MB HIGH 
NEAR 44N130W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE 
HIGH MIGRATES NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE TAIL OF THE 
MID LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AT THE MOMENT SHEDS WESTWARD...BREAKING UP THE DEEP LAYER 
RIDGING OVER N WATERS.  THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR 
30N140W WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SLOWLY LIFTED NORTHWARD ON THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS.  THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SLOW MOVING AND NOT EXPECTED 
TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...NW SWELL WILL BE 
ON THE RISE BY EARLY TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT AND 
HIGHER OVER FAR NW WATERS BY WED.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK