000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 04N77W 04N83W 07N104W 05N113W 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-104W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS AN AXIS 
SW ACROSS NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA WHICH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT 
FOR A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS INTO NE 
MEXICO. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW 
U.S. AND THE THE LOWER PRES  OVER THE TROPICS...COMBINED WITH 
LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES...CONTINUES GALE CONDITIONS IN THE 
N PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES 
THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN BELOW GALE FORCE IN 36 HOURS AS THE SFC 
HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS. A RECENT PASS OF JASON ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS 
SEAS OF 10 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
LENDING CREDENCE TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS. 

STRONG WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO GENERATE NE 20-25 KT 
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN 
THIS REGIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TRADE WINDS REMAIN 
STRONG OVER THE S HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...THIS 
WILL CHANGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES S OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN SETTING UP ANOTHER GALE EVENT LATE SUN AND 
MON. 

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH WITHIN ITCZ COUPLED WITH AN UPPER 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
(OUTLINED IN ITCZ SECTION ABOVE).

W OF 120W...
A MID-UPPER LOW NEAR 26N139W IS BEING DRIVEN SLIGHTLY W AS A 
STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY TO ITS N. A JET ORIGINATES 
NEAR THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDS NE 
ACROSS MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W WITH A SECOND 
AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.  

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W 
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 41N131W. 

$$
WALLACE