000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W 05N110W 07N125W 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 87W-101W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH 
ITS AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS N BAJA. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING 
SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO N MEXICO. THE PRES 
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 1042 MB HIGH OVER NRN NEVADA AND THE TAIL 
END OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES... 
HAS TRIGGERED GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A 1234 
UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT OVER THE S PORTION OF THE 
GULF...BUT IT MISSED THE EXPECTED AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS (N OF 
26N). STILL AWAITING HI-RES INFO FROM QSCAT WHICH MAY VERIFY 
THE WARNING IN PLACE. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 48 
HOURS AS THE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

NE 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. MORNING QSCAT DATA REVEALED 20-25 KT EXTENDING TO 
NEAR 92W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS TRADE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OVER THE S HALF OF 
THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE 
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
SURGE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN SETTING UP ANOTHER GALE 
EVENT LATE SUN AND MON. QSCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED N 20-25 KT WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. THIS ENHANCED FLOW SHOULD 
DIMINISH BY SUN AS THE TRADES OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SHIFT FROM 
THE N/NE TO NE/E.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH WITHIN ITCZ COUPLED WITH AN UPPER 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
(OUTLINED IN ITCZ SECTION ABOVE).

W OF 120W...
A MID-UPPER LOW NEAR 28N136W IS BEING DRIVEN SLIGHTLY W AS A 
STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO ITS N. A JET ORIGINATES NEAR THE BASE 
OF THE LOW'S ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND EXTENDS NE TO MEXICO. 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. THE MID-UPPER LOW WILL BE 
FORCED N ON MON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

$$
CANGIALOSI